Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price surges 69.5pp to 100%
Whale buying aligned with a near-total repricing on Polymarket, signaling a sharp shift in market conviction.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds surge 68.8pp to 99.8% as whales pile in $323K
Whale buying aligned with a massive 24-hour price jump on Polymarket, signaling strong conviction in a US blockade announcement by July 31.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 28.5 points as whale flow backs surge
YES price on Iran military action against a Gulf State rises from 41.0% to 69.5% with aligned whale buying
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 63.5 pp to 80% on Polymarket
Whale bets and market prices moved in tandem, driving a sharp 24-hour repricing on the diplomatic meeting question.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 40 pp to 71% on Polymarket in 24 hours
Whale trading aligned with sharp price rise as market recalibrates likelihood of conflict on July 13
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 50.5pp to 77.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, lifting the market from 27.0% to 77.5% certainty.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 62.5 pp to 81.5% in 24 hours
Whale activity aligned with a sharp shift in market sentiment on Polymarket, driving YES contract price from 19.0% to 81.5%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 32.5pp to 72.5% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with sharp price jump as market reevaluates conflict risk on July 13
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 drop 21.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's 'Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?' contract saw a sharp 21.5 percentage point price decline while whale buying increased, signaling contrasting market signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 63pp to 82% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as the market sharply repriced expectations for a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13