The probability that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 13 rose sharply by 33.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 22.6% to 56.0% on Polymarket. This significant repricing reflects a sudden shift in market sentiment toward the event occurring.
Whale activity confirmed this price move, with 48 unique whales collectively contributing $7K in net buying into the YES contract. Their buy volume of $14K outpaced sell volume by $7K, indicating strong demand from larger traders. Despite a total 24-hour trading volume of $11K on Polymarket, whales accounted for a substantial share of the market action, reinforcing the price increase.
The lifetime market volume for this contract stands at $22K with 135 unique traders participating since inception, showing steady interest in this geopolitical outcome. The alignment between whale flow and price suggests that the recent surge was driven by informed or confident participants rather than speculative noise.
This combined price and flow dynamic points to a growing consensus that the event will occur, marking a meaningful shift in the market’s assessment of geopolitical risk on the specified date.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +33.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 56.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $14K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 48 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 135 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.