Breaking
Iran military action on July 9? YES price jumps 54.2 pp to 75.8%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rise in odds, signaling increased market conviction on military action in the Gulf.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds jump 45.4 points to 70.6% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price shifts aligned as market sharply repriced likelihood of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 9
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 47.9pp to 74% as whale flow backs surge
The Polymarket contract on Iran's military action against a Gulf State saw a sharp repricing alongside aligned whale bets, signaling heightened conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? YES price plunges 38.5 pp to 19.0%
Whale activity diverged sharply from the 24-hour price drop, signaling conflicting views on sanction relief timing.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES price jumps 40.2 pp to 69.0%
Whale activity moved in line with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iranian military action on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 72.5 points to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with sharp repricing, pushing YES price from 18.0% to 90.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 69.5pp to 87.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, pushing the YES contract near certainty.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 43 points to 74% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price move as market sharply repriced likelihood of conflict on July 9
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 35.7 points to 65.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in probability for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 67pp to 85% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 67-point rise in the probability of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026, pushing the market to a new high.
Jul 13