The probability that Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 surged 15.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 11.5% to 27.0% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment on this geopolitical event.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, with 35 unique large traders contributing $26K in buy volume against $12K in sell volume, resulting in a net $14K flow into YES contracts. This buying pressure from whales supports the tape’s upward momentum, indicating coordinated interest behind the price increase.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours totaled $21K, close to the market’s lifetime volume of $27K, highlighting a concentrated burst of activity and engagement from 64 unique traders overall.
The combined surge in price and whale buying suggests that confidence in Iran’s potential withdrawal from the MOU negotiations is increasing, with large traders driving the shift in probabilities. This dynamic points to a market reevaluating the geopolitical landscape as the July 24 deadline approaches.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853059 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 27.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 11.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 11.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $14K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 35 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 64 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.