The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES contract price leap 62.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 37.5% to 100% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 13, 2026. This sharp repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment toward near certainty of the event occurring within the timeframe.
Whale activity accompanied this price move, with 322 unique whales contributing a net $351K inflow into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $593K versus $242K in sells, indicating sustained buying pressure at the top end of the market. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket reached $487K, a substantial share of the market’s $1.76M lifetime volume and involving 1,355 unique traders.
Notably, whale flow aligned with the price surge, reinforcing the conviction behind the move rather than contradicting it. However, the on-chain mid price from Polydata remains at 22.5%, diverging significantly from the Polymarket Breaking price at 100%. This gap suggests differing valuation signals between order book activity and on-chain data.
The combined picture of a full-price repricing alongside strong whale buying indicates a decisive shift in market consensus on the blockade question. The volume and whale engagement underline the significance traders place on this geopolitical development, marking it as a focal point in short-term prediction markets.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +62.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 100.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 37.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $351K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $593K / $242K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 322 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $487K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,355 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.