Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Polymarket’s contract on xAI’s Grok model scoring at least 1460 by end-2026 sharply reprices as whale activity contradicts price movement.
A single wallet placed $346K on Kim Kardashian winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, sharply diverging from the market's longshot pricing.
A single wallet’s $300K purchase joins broader whale buying despite the longshot status of Switzerland’s victory.
Despite a 5.9% market-implied probability, whales have pushed $463K net into Norway winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup over 24 hours.
Experienced trader @neutralwave23 stakes $283K on Norway to win despite low market-implied probability, joining broader whale buying.
Whale activity of $20K aligns with sharp price rise, signaling strong market conviction on the event.
Whale activity diverged sharply from the 74.2pp plunge in YES price, signaling conflicting views on xAI’s model performance.
Whales have poured $1.26M net into Belgium winning, diverging sharply from the market's 0.05% implied probability on $129.28M volume.
Polymarket’s market on Credible public sale commitment saw YES odds drop from 38.0% to 20.5%, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 53.1 percentage point drop in the probability of Trump signing the housing bill by end of July.
