Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24.5pp as whales push $156K into YES
Polymarket’s latest data shows a sharp rise in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, backed by aligned whale buying.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES jumps 27.1 points to 91%
Whales supported the surge with $2K net buys, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price surges 68pp to 76.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing, pushing the probability from 8.5% to 76.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran market jumps 19pp as whales push YES to 40.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 19.0 percentage point rise in YES price on Polymarket, signaling increased conviction in a blockade announcement by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 34pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price plunge to 36.5% on the Strait of Hormuz transit question contrasts with whale flow, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 64.5 points to 73% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of military action on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 17pp to 48.5% with whale buying aligned
Whales added $22K to YES in a $48K volume surge as Polymarket prices rose sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 31.5 pp in 24h
Price and whale flow diverged sharply as market probability fell from 71.0% to 39.5% despite no whale buying support.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 70pp to 78.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps from 8.5% to 78.5% as whale flow aligns with the sharp price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 50.4pp to 100% on FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG semifinal scenario
Whale activity aligns with sharp market repricing in Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals question.
Jul 12