Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Polymarket’s “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?” saw a sharp rise in YES price accompanied by strong whale buying activity.
Whale buying on the US-Iran diplomatic meeting market diverged from a sharp 20pp decline in YES price over 24 hours.
Whale activity supported a sharp 24-hour rise in the market's probability to 66.0%.
Whale buying aligned with sharp 24-hour jump in probability for Gulf State conflict
Whales bought $7.15M vs $2.93M sold in last 24h, diverging sharply from market odds on Switzerland's 2026 World Cup chances
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rally in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, doubling the market’s odds in 24 hours.
Large trader activity contrasts sharply with low market-implied odds in Norway’s 2026 FIFA World Cup chances.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 12.
Whale buying and price moves aligned sharply in the last 24 hours on Polymarket's Iran blockade market.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 65pp rise in odds for Iran launching military action against a Gulf state on July 12.
