Breaking
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES odds jump 25.5pp to 59% on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with $18K net buys, pushing the market well above on-chain mid-price
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 52pp to 61.5% on July 12 Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 52-point jump in market odds to 61.5%, signaling increased conviction of imminent conflict.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Jump 59.5 Points to 69% on Polymarket
Whale activity moved in line with a sharp rise in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Odds Surge 86.1 Points Amid Whale Buying
Whale net inflows of $6K matched a sharp rise in the chance Iran targets shipping on July 12, pushing YES price to 89.5%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 33 pp to 66.5% with whale support
Whales contributed $18K net buying as Polymarket YES price for Kostyantynivka capture surged sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka odds jump 35.5 pp to 69% on Polymarket
Whales aligned with price action, adding $13K net to YES as market sharply reprices
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 36.5 pp in 24h
The YES contract price plunged from 70.5% to 34.0% despite whale flow moving against the drop, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capture Kostyantynivka odds jump 26pp to 59.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of capture by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 79.8 pp to 83.2% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour repricing with $5K net flow into YES contracts amid $11K total volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 66.5pp to 76% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” contract surged from 9.5% to 76%, with whale flow supporting the sharp repricing.
Jul 12