The probability that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12 jumped dramatically by 86.1 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from an estimated 3.5% to 89.5% on Polymarket. This sudden repricing was accompanied by aligned whale activity, with 67 unique whales contributing a net $6K inflow into YES contracts during the same period.
Whales bought $12K worth of YES contracts while selling $6K, resulting in a net positive flow that tracked closely with the price surge. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market reached $12K, which is significant compared to its lifetime volume of $18K, indicating a concentrated burst of trading interest.
With 140 unique traders involved overall, the market’s liquidity and participation highlight a collective reassessment of the likelihood of the event. The tandem movement of price and whale flow suggests that informed or large-scale traders are reinforcing the new elevated probability rather than opposing it.
This combination of price action and whale buying signals a strong market conviction that Iran will carry out the targeted shipping attack on July 12, reflecting a swift shift in market expectations within a single day.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +86.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 89.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $12K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 67 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 140 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.