The probability that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 surged 35.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 33.5% to 69.0%. This sharp repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment on the conflict question.
Whale activity tracked closely with the price move, with $27K in whale buy volume against $14K in sell volume, resulting in a net flow of $13K into YES contracts. A total of 74 unique whales participated in trading during this period, underscoring broad engagement among large traders. The overall 24-hour volume on the market was $24K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $164K across 537 unique traders.
Interestingly, the Polymarket Breaking feed’s YES price of 69.0% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 29.0%, indicating a significant disparity between market sentiment and on-chain data. Despite this gap, the alignment of whale flow with the price increase suggests that large traders are reinforcing the price movement rather than opposing it.
This combined surge in price and whale buying points to a strong consensus among major participants that the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the deadline has increased materially in the last day. The market’s rapid adjustment and whale support signal heightened conviction behind this outcome within Polymarket’s ecosystem.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +35.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 69.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 29.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $27K / $14K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 74 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 537 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.