Breaking
Iran shipping target odds surge 86.2 points to 88.4% with whale buying
Whales backed the sharp jump in probability for Iran targeting shipping on July 12, adding $11K net to YES contracts amid $18K total volume.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 23.8 Points Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?” contract sees a sharp 24-hour YES price decline while whale activity moves against the price trend.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Odds Surge 91 Points as Whales Back YES by $11K
Whale buying aligned with a massive jump from 2.2% to 93.2% in the market on Iran targeting shipping July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch odds plunge 40.4 pp in 24 hours
Polymarket’s YES contract for a July 15 launch dropped from 40.9% to 0.55% even as whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 67.5 Points as Whale Activity Supports Rally
The probability of Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 soared to 74.5% amid aligned whale buying and rising volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price jumps 22.5 pp to 55.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity of $20K net buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing odds well above on-chain mid estimates.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?’ YES price jumps 36.0 pp to 55.5%
Whales supported the surge with $166K net inflow into YES, pushing the Polymarket price well above on-chain midpoints.
Jul 12
Breaking
Israel military action odds jump 17.5 points to 63% on Polymarket
Whale trades and price moves aligned as market repriced a military action by August 31 scenario.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 36.5pp to 56% as whales back YES with $168K net flow
Polymarket’s US blockade on Iran market saw a sharp odds shift aligned with whale buying, signaling strong conviction in a July 31 announcement.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 33.5 points to 44% on July 12 news
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” contract saw aligned whale bets and price surge, signaling a sharp reassessment of the risk.
Jul 12