Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension YES price jumps 80pp to 99.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as market sharply repriced likelihood of Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 12.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action probability jumps 83.5 points to 90% on July 12 market
Polymarket’s contract on Iran taking military action against a Gulf State sees aligned whale flow and a surge in odds to 90%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds spike 87 points to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading backed the rapid jump in probability for Iran’s military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds on Strait of Hormuz Transits July 31 Jump 23.2pp to 44.1%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise in the market for average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24pp to 38.5% with $191K whale inflow
Whales and market price moved together as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 surged sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action on July 12? YES jumps 83.5 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing from 7.0% to 90.5%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 15.5 points to 92.5% on United Left primary cancellation market
Whales aligned with the price rally, adding a net $4K into YES as Polymarket sharply reprices the 2026 French presidential primary question.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 80pp to 86.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets reinforced a sharp shift in expectations for Iran's military move, with contract prices jumping from 6.5% to 86.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Rise 17 pp to 41% on US Warships Transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026
Whale activity moved in tandem with a sharp price increase, lifting market confidence in US naval passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
Strait of Hormuz transit odds jump 17.6pp to 43.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the price surge as the market reassessed the likelihood of low transit traffic on July 31.
Jul 12