Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 23pp to 38.5% with $193K whale buying
Whales reinforced a sharp 24-hour rise in Polymarket’s contract pricing US blockade of Iran by July 31.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 75.5 pp to 82% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps sharply with whale flows confirming the shift.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Hormuz attack odds plunge 16.1pp to 1.5% despite whale buying
Whale activity diverged from sharply falling prices in the market for Iran not attacking ships by Sunday, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 12
Weather
San Francisco Weather Forecasts Diverge by 15.3°F Amid $75K Market Volume
Wide forecast spread for San Francisco highlights market activity in a $388K daily weather vertical.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Contract Jumps 24.5 Points to 56% on Polymarket
Whales added $27K to YES positions as market odds on Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 79pp to 85.5% on July 12
Whale activity and price movement aligned as probability surged from 6.5% to 85.5% within 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade market jumps 22pp as whales add $27K to YES
Polymarket’s US blockade question shifts sharply higher with whale activity reinforcing the move amid a volume spike.
Jul 12
Breaking
Anthropic IPO odds plunge 24.5 points as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite $4K whale buying, highlighting tension between price moves and whale activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by July 31? YES price jumps 28pp to 60.5%
Whales supported the surge with $26K net buys amid $47K total 24h volume, pushing odds sharply higher.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 75pp to 82.5% as Whale Bets Align
Polymarket’s Gulf conflict market saw a swift 75pp rise in YES odds with whale activity confirming the move.
Jul 12