The market for whether there will be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31 saw its YES contract price surge 23.2 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 20.9% to 44.1%.
This significant repricing occurred alongside whale flow that aligned with the upward move, confirming the market’s shift in sentiment. The $15K traded volume over the same period indicates active participation in this contract.
The alignment between large trader activity and the price increase suggests a consensus among informed participants that the likelihood of low transit numbers through the Strait of Hormuz on that date has materially increased. This combined price and flow dynamic highlights growing conviction in the market about this geopolitical or logistical outcome.
Overall, the sharp jump in odds paired with confirming whale flow signals a notable reassessment of the scenario’s probability, reflecting changing information or risk perceptions among market participants.
| Market | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698835 |
| 24h price change | +23.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 44.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 20.9% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.