“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price falls 17pp despite $22K whale buying
Polymarket’s YES price dropped from 59.5% to 42.5% in 24 hours while whales accumulated $22K, revealing a divergence between price and whale flow.
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Polymarket’s YES price dropped from 59.5% to 42.5% in 24 hours while whales accumulated $22K, revealing a divergence between price and whale flow.
Whales backed the sharp rise with $6K net flow into YES as market odds swung dramatically in 24 hours.
Whales added $7K net to YES contracts as market odds surged from 74.6% to 91.2% in 24 hours
Polymarket’s contract on no next UK Culture Secretary in 2026 sees aligned whale buying and a sharp odds shift.
Whales contributed $6K net buying as the market price surged from 81.6% to near certainty in 24 hours.
The probability of Iranian military action on July 9 jumped from 19.9% to 60.3% amid aligned whale buying and rising volume.
Bitcoin dip market on Polymarket saw a sharp 15.5 pp rise in YES price, backed by $14K whale net inflow.
Whales pushed $4K into YES contracts, reinforcing a sharp 24-hour price rise on the celebrity event market.
Polymarket data shows a sharp 22.1 percentage point fall in YES price for Betty Gilpin’s Emmy nod, with whale flow moving against the price trend.
Whale activity aligned with the price surge, reinforcing the shift in market sentiment on Polymarket.