The probability that Gracie Abrams will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged by 15.7 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 81.6% to 97.3% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment around the celebrity event.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, contributing a net $4K in YES contract purchases within the same timeframe. Whale buy volume totaled $7K against $3K in sell volume, spread across 47 unique whales, indicating broad interest among large traders. The 24-hour Polymarket volume for this market was $7K, while lifetime volume stands at $61K with 247 unique traders participating overall.
The concurrence of strong whale buying and a steep price increase signals robust conviction behind the expectation that Gracie Abrams will attend the wedding. Such alignment between large trader flow and price action often confirms that recent information or developments have materially shifted probabilities in the market.
As of July 13, 2026, the market has decisively re-rated the likelihood of this event, reflecting either new intelligence or reassessed odds from participants. The combined price and whale flow data suggest confidence in this outcome is now very high among Polymarket traders.
| Market | Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941758 |
| 24h price change | +15.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 97.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 81.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 97.8% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 47 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 247 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.