The Polymarket contract “Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?” surged 15.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, with the YES price climbing from 80.5% to 96.0% as of July 13, 2026. This sharp repricing coincided with whale activity that aligned with the price move, as 37 unique whales contributed a net $14K into YES contracts, buying $21K and selling $7K.
The 24-hour volume on this market was $21K, nearly matching the lifetime market volume of $29K, indicating concentrated recent interest. A total of 72 unique traders have participated in this market, highlighting moderate engagement overall.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 96.0% stands significantly above the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 75.0%, indicating some divergence between the market price and on-chain metrics.
The aligned whale flow and price increase suggest that larger traders are reinforcing the market’s shift toward a higher probability of Bitcoin dipping to $62,500 in July. This combination of price action and whale buying underscores a strong market reassessment of this outcome’s likelihood within the Polymarket ecosystem.
| Market | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2861255 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 96.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 80.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 75.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $14K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $21K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 37 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 72 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.