The prediction market on whether Iran successfully targeted shipping on July 12 saw its YES price rise sharply by 16.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 74.6% to 91.2% as of the latest Polymarket Breaking feed. This substantial increase reflects a rapid shift in market expectations about the event’s likelihood.
Whale activity closely aligned with the price move, with a net inflow of $7K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $9K, while sell volume stood at $3K, spread across 61 unique whale traders. This buying pressure from large traders reinforced the price momentum rather than countering it.
Overall trading volume on Polymarket for the market reached $14K within this 24-hour period, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $33K and involving 205 unique traders. The combined surge in both price and whale demand suggests a consensus building around the event’s occurrence, as reflected by the market’s elevated probability.
This coordinated shift in both price and whale flow signals a significant market reassessment, indicating that participants are increasingly convinced of Iran’s successful targeting of shipping on the specified date.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +16.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 91.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 74.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 61 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 205 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.