Breaking
US Iran Blockade Market YES Price Surges 67.2pp to 99.8% with $365K Whale Net Flow
Whales and price moved in sync as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 soared sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price falls 23.0 pp amid whale-flow divergence
Despite a $18K net whale inflow into YES contracts, the market price dropped sharply from 61.5% to 38.5% in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price jumps 33.4 pp to 56.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp rise in odds, signaling increased conviction behind the event's likelihood.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 34.4 Points to 62.5% on Polymarket
Sharp price rise on Iran's Gulf State military action question aligns with whale trading in $60K volume.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 47 points to 66% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the surge in YES price, lifting market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Jump 15.5pp to 27% as Whale Buys Support Rally
Whales added $14K net to YES as Polymarket’s price for Iran withdrawal by July 24 climbs sharply, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran blockade market surges 68.3 points as whales push YES to 99.9%
Polymarket’s contract on a US blockade of Iran by July 31 jumps sharply with strong whale buying supporting the rally.
Jul 13
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July Odds Drop 15.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
Polymarket's 'Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?' YES price fell from 64.5% to 49.0%, while whales added $6K net into YES, signaling conflicting signals in market sentiment.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price jumps 39.5 pp to 72.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp odds increase, pushing the market toward a military action outcome.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 53.5 points in 24 hours
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in market conviction on a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13