Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 67pp to 85% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 67-point rise in the probability of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026, pushing the market to a new high.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 59.5 pp to 77.5% in 24 hours
Whale activity tracked with sharp price rise as market bets on a summit by July 14, 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
US blockade on Iran by July 31? YES price jumps 62.5 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whales added $351K net to YES contracts as price surged from 37.5% to full certainty, with flow and tape aligned despite on-chain mid at 22.5%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 64 pp to 82% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices rose in tandem, driving a sharp revaluation of the diplomatic meeting likelihood.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES jumps 66.3 points to 99.8%
Whales added $347K net into YES alongside a surge in contract price on Polymarket, signaling a sharp shift in market conviction.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 46.5 points to 64.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in YES price, pushing market confidence significantly higher in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price jumps 65.2 pp to 99.8% with $351K whale inflow
Polymarket’s key contract on a US blockade of Iran surges as whale buying aligns with a sharp price rally, despite on-chain data showing lower odds.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU talks by July 17? YES price jumps 19.7 pp to 27.2%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing, lifting the market’s probability on Iran pulling out of negotiations.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 33.5 points to 52.5% as whale flow backs rally
A sharp 33.5 percentage point rise in the market’s YES price aligns with whale bets, signaling growing confidence in a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds Pamela Evette Will Replace Graham as South Carolina Senator Drop 40.5pp in 24h
Polymarket price for Pamela Evette replacing Senator Graham plunged from 45.5% to 5.1%, while whale flow diverged by not supporting the sharp decline.
Jul 13