The Polymarket contract “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw a dramatic increase in its YES price, rising 67.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 32.5% to 99.8%. This surge represents a near-certain market consensus shift on the event’s likelihood.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, with a net inflow of $365K into YES positions. Whale buy volume reached $628K, more than doubling the $263K in sells, spread across 322 unique whales. This strong whale buying supported the rapid repricing.
Polymarket 24-hour volume on this market totaled $508K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $1.74M and involving 1,347 unique traders. Despite this, the Polydata on-chain mid-price shows a lower YES probability at 22.5%, indicating a divergence between Polymarket’s live price feed and the on-chain data snapshot.
The coordinated whale buying and price acceleration signal a substantial market reappraisal of the US government’s intentions toward Iran by the end of July. The near-100% YES price combined with robust whale flow suggests participants have significantly increased confidence in the blockade occurring within the specified timeframe.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +67.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $365K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $628K / $263K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 322 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $508K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,347 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.