The YES price for the market “Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” plunged 23.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 61.5% to 38.5% according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 13, 2026. This represents a substantial market revaluation of the likelihood that Russia will achieve this objective by the end of July.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price move during this period. Large traders collectively bought $35K worth of YES contracts and sold $17K, resulting in a net whale inflow of $18K into YES positions. This contrasts with the market’s downward price adjustment, signaling a disconnect between the tape and whale behavior.
The 24-hour total market volume was $29K, below the whale buy volume alone, highlighting that whales dominated recent trading activity. Over the market’s lifetime, total volume reached $239K with 637 unique traders participating, indicating sustained interest but a recent shift in sentiment.
The divergence between whale flow and price suggests differing interpretations or strategies among large traders compared to the broader market. While the market odds imply a reduced chance of Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by July 31, whale buying points to some continued belief in that outcome. This tension reflects uncertainty and active repositioning ahead of the deadline.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 38.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 61.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $18K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $35K / $17K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 78 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $29K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 637 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.