Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 20pp despite $41K whale buy flow
Whale buying on the US-Iran diplomatic meeting market diverged from a sharp 20pp decline in YES price over 24 hours.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 870 stories.
Breaking
US Iran blockade market YES price jumps 23.5pp to 45% with $160K whale inflow
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rally in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, doubling the market’s odds in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Whales
Whales pour $317K into Norway World Cup win despite 0.05% market price
Large trader activity contrasts sharply with low market-implied odds in Norway’s 2026 FIFA World Cup chances.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 86pp to 89.4% with whale buying support
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 65 Percentage Points to 73.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 65pp rise in odds for Iran launching military action against a Gulf state on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES jumps 27.1 points to 91%
Whales supported the surge with $2K net buys, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 34pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price plunge to 36.5% on the Strait of Hormuz transit question contrasts with whale flow, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 64.5 points to 73% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of military action on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Market Surges 89.5pp to 92.9% with Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” contract jumps from 3.5% to 92.9% as whales add $4K net to YES positions.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 62pp to 70.5% on July 12
Whale activity aligned with sharp price jump, pushing Polymarket’s market odds from 8.5% to 70.5%.
Jul 12