Breaking
Odds on Claude Opus model release by July 22, 2026, drop 23.5 points despite whale bets
YES price on Polymarket fell from 57.5% to 34.0% in 24 hours while whale flow diverged, pushing $11K volume.
Jul 19
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 52.5pp to 4.5% amid whale-buying divergence
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market saw a sharp 52.5 percentage point drop in YES price despite $9K whale net inflow into YES contracts, highlighting a rare divergence between price moves and whale activity.
Jul 19
Breaking
Iran Gulf State Military Action Odds Drop 42pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES contract for Iran military action on July 15 fell from 58.0% to 16.0% despite $7K whale net buys, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Jul 19
Breaking
Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver mayoral win odds drop 18.5pp despite $5K whale inflow
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 18.5 percentage point drop in the Yes price for Allam’s victory, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe Top Scorer Odds Surge 51pp to 92.5% on $521K Whale Buy Flow
Kylian Mbappe’s 2026 World Cup top scorer market jumps sharply, with whale activity confirming the rapid repricing.
Jul 19
Breaking
Kareem Allam Vancouver Mayoral Odds Drop 24.5 Points as Whale Flow Diverges
YES contract price for Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver mayoral win fell sharply even as whales added $5K net to YES positions, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 19
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on US halting Iran offensive drops 19.5 pp amid whale divergence
The market price for a US announcement to stop Iran offensive operations by July 24 fell sharply while whale flow opposed the move, signaling conflicting signals in trader behavior.
Jul 19
Breaking
Odds for US halting Iran offensive by July 24 plunge 35.5pp amid whale divergence
Polymarket’s “US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?” market saw a sharp 35.5 percentage point drop in YES price over 24 hours while whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 19
Breaking
“Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?” YES price jumps 17.0 pp to 99.0%
Whales increased net buying by $17K, pushing Polymarket odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe Top Scorer Market Surges 52pp to 93.5% on Whale Buying
Kylian Mbappe’s odds to be 2026 World Cup top scorer jumped sharply as whales added $544K net to YES positions, aligning with the price rally.
Jul 19