The market on whether Kylian Mbappe will be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup saw a dramatic shift in the past 24 hours, with the YES price soaring 52.0 percentage points from 41.5% to 93.5%. This large repricing occurred alongside significant whale activity that reinforced the move.
Whales contributed a net $544K into YES contracts, with buy volume reaching $999K and sell volume at $455K, among 497 unique whale traders. This whale flow aligns closely with the sharp price increase, indicating strong buying pressure from large traders rather than a divergence between flow and price movements.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $1.15M, representing a substantial portion of the market’s lifetime volume of $6.42M. The market has attracted 9,800 unique traders to date, highlighting broad participant interest in this outcome.
The combined surge in price and whale buying suggests growing conviction among large traders that Mbappe will be the top scorer at the tournament. This coordinated price and flow action signals a significant shift in market sentiment, pushing the contract’s implied probability to near certainty.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2069638 |
| 24h price change | +52.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 93.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $544K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $999K / $455K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 497 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $1.15M |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 9,800 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.