The probability that Kareem Allam will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election dropped 24.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 51.5% to 27.0% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 19. This sharp decline contrasts with whale trading behavior, which showed a net $5K inflow into YES contracts, with $11K bought and $6K sold by 60 unique whales during the same period.
The divergence between price movement and whale flow stands out. While the market price sharply repriced Allam’s chances downward, large traders increased their exposure to YES positions. This suggests a split between broader market sentiment and whale conviction. The total 24-hour volume on the market was $13K, representing a significant portion of the lifetime market volume of $51K, with 273 unique traders overall.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 27.0% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 36.0%, indicating some variation in price feeds or timing.
Overall, the combination of a steep price decline alongside continued whale buying points to a market in flux, with large traders potentially positioning against the prevailing price trend. This tension highlights uncertainty and competing views on Kareem Allam’s chances in the Vancouver mayoral race as the election approaches.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 27.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 36.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 60 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 273 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.