The market “Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?” saw its Yes contract price fall sharply by 18.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, dropping from approximately 51.5% to 33.0%.
Despite this significant decline in implied probability, whale activity showed a net inflow of $5K into Yes contracts. Over the same period, whales bought $11K and sold $6K, indicating a divergence between large trader flow and the overall price movement. This mismatch suggests that while the broader market repriced Allam’s chances downward, some whales increased their exposure to his victory.
The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question reached $13K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $51K with 273 unique traders participating. The presence of 60 unique whales in the last 24 hours highlights notable engagement from high-stakes participants.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement underscores a complex market dynamic. While the price drop points to a reassessment of Allam’s electoral prospects, the whale net buying signals a subset of informed traders maintaining or increasing conviction in his chances. Together, these factors suggest a market in flux, with competing interpretations of the underlying political developments ahead of the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +18.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 33.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 33.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 60 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 273 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.