The Polymarket contract on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12 saw a dramatic shift in the last 24 hours, with the YES price plunging 21.5 percentage points from 34.0% to 12.5%. This sharp repricing signals a significant reduction in market confidence that the extension will occur.
Despite this steep decline in the YES price, whale trading flows did not follow the price trend. The divergence between large-volume trades and the market price indicates that while retail or smaller traders are pushing the contract lower, whales have not increased their net exposure to YES positions.
Polymarket recorded $9K in volume over the past 24 hours, reflecting moderate trading interest amid the price adjustment. The divergence between flow and price adds nuance to the narrative, implying that the recent price drop is not fully supported by the largest bets on the platform.
Overall, the combined picture of a sharp decline in YES price alongside stable whale behavior points to a market grappling with uncertainty about Anthropic’s decision on Claude Fable 5 access extension. The move highlights how price signals and large trader flows can tell different stories in prediction markets.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839715 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 12.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 34.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.