The Polymarket contract asking whether Moscow air traffic will be suspended by August 31 saw its YES price fall sharply by 15.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 92.5% to 77.5% as of July 11. This sizable revaluation signals a significant shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of this event.
Interestingly, this downward price movement diverged from whale trading activity. While the YES price dropped, the whale flow moved against the tape, indicating that large traders were not supporting the price decline. This divergence between whale flow and price action suggests differing views between retail and large investors or a possible rebalancing of positions by whales.
Trading volume on this market remained modest at $26K in the last 24 hours, reflecting steady but not overwhelming interest. The gap between price and whale flow adds complexity to the contract’s outlook, highlighting a market grappling with conflicting signals about the probability of Moscow’s air traffic suspension by the end of August.
This price and flow disconnect means the market is currently weighing new information or risks, with large traders potentially anticipating a different outcome than the broader market price implies. The evolving dynamics underscore the contract’s uncertainty as traders adjust their positions ahead of the August 31 deadline.
| Market | Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2846147 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 92.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $26K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.