Breaking
Odds for Moscow Air Traffic Suspension by August 31 Drop 16.5pp Amid Whale Divergence
Polymarket's Moscow air traffic suspension contract fell from 90.5% to 74.0% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 10
#%swhale-flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 303 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 27.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” contract fell sharply despite whale activity opposing the move.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price plunges 36.5 points amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES contract for Trump signing housing bill by end of July dropped from 40.0% to 3.5% despite whale activity moving opposite the price shift.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 57.2 pp amid whale flow divergence
YES contract for Iran military action on July 9 dropped from 71.5% to 14.2% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate Exit Market Drops 22pp Despite $14K Whale Bets on YES
Polymarket's price for McConnell stepping down falls from 68.5% to 46.5% while whale flow moves $14K into YES, diverging from the price shift.
Jul 10
Breaking
Ethereum $1,700 July dip odds slide 23.5 points as whale flow diverges
YES contract on Ethereum dip dropped from 84.0% to 60.5% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 10
Breaking
‘Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?’ YES price plunges 30.8 pp amid whale flow-price split
While the YES price collapsed from 32.3% to 1.5% in 24 hours, whales increased net bets by $5K, showing a notable divergence between price action and whale activity.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES price surges 50.4 pp to 99.0%
Whale activity matched the sharp odds shift as the market priced near certainty on UFO file release by mid-July.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES jumps 35pp to 83% on aligned whale flow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability sharply higher to 83%, reflecting growing confidence in imminent disclosure.
Jul 10
Breaking
Trump UFO files market jumps 41pp to 88.5% as whale bets confirm rally
Polymarket's 'Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?' market surged on aligned whale and retail buying, signaling strong conviction in the outcome.
Jul 10