The probability that the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, collapsed by 68.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from 71.5% to just 3.2%. This dramatic shift marks a rare and sharp repricing in a short timeframe.
Despite the rapid decline in the YES contract price, whale trading activity diverged from the price movement, indicating that large traders did not follow the selling momentum. The $11K in 24-hour volume accompanied this unusual pattern where the price and whale flow moved in opposite directions, a divergence flagged by Polymarket’s Breaking feed.
This divergence suggests a split between retail or smaller traders who rapidly abandoned the YES position and whales who either held steady or accumulated contrary to the price drop. The sharp fall in market-implied probability reflects a significant reevaluation of the likelihood that xAI’s next Grok model will meet the 1460 score threshold within the specified timeframe.
The conflicting signals between price action and whale flow highlight uncertainty or differing information sets among market participants about the model’s potential performance. This dynamic makes the contract’s near-term path particularly interesting to watch, as it reflects a market grappling with sharply changing expectations.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +68.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 3.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 71.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.