Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 22 stories.
Polymarket’s SpaceX launch market dropped from 81.5% to 0.65% even as whales bought $24K into YES contracts, signaling a divergence between price and whale flow.
Whales added $23K to YES contracts even as the market’s implied probability dropped from 81.5% to 6.6%.
Whale activity diverged sharply from market price, with $15K net flow into YES amid a steep drop in launch probability.
Whale activity diverged from market price as Polymarket’s odds for Starship launch by July 17 collapsed from 82.0% to 6.5%.
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 76.0 percentage point drop in the YES price on SpaceX’s Starship launch market.
Despite a sharp fall in the YES price, whale activity diverged by not supporting the move on Polymarket.
Polymarket’s YES contract for a July 15 launch dropped from 40.9% to 0.55% even as whale activity diverged from the price move.
YES contract price drops from 37.7% to 0.45% despite no whale buying, signaling market skepticism.
Despite a sharp 30.6 pp drop in YES price, whale activity diverged by not backing the decline in SpaceX launch odds.
Polymarket’s market on a July 15 launch saw YES contract price plunge from 19.4% to 0.50% while whale activity diverged, signaling skepticism among major bettors.
