The market for “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?” saw a dramatic shift as the YES contract price fell 78.8 percentage points in 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 81.5% to just 2.8%.
This sharp decline in market-implied odds contrasts with whale behavior during the same period: whales net bought $15K into YES, with $24K in buy volume against $8K in sell volume. A total of 62 unique whales participated in trading over the past day.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this contract stood at $24K, closely matching the whale buy volume, while lifetime market volume reached $26K with 125 unique traders overall. The divergence between whale flow and the steep price drop signals a disconnect between large trader positions and the broader market sentiment.
Such a disparity suggests that while the wider market sharply downgraded the likelihood of the Starship Flight Test 13 launching by the set date, significant whale bets remained bullish on the event. This mixed signal highlights ongoing uncertainty and differing perspectives among key market participants regarding the launch’s probability.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2911983 |
| 24h price change | +78.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 2.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 81.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 2.8% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $15K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $24K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 62 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 125 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.