Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 88.8 pp to 91.0% as whales back YES
Whale activity and a rapid price surge aligned as the market repriced the chance of an Iranian attack on shipping on July 12.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 72 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket’s Iran shipping target yes contract jumps 93.1 pp to 95.3% with whale buying
Whales bought $11K into yes as the probability surged from 2.2% to 95.3% in 24 hours on Iran’s July 12 shipping target market.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 15pp Despite Whale Selling
Polymarket’s market for a July 15 launch of Starship Flight Test 13 fell from 15.5% to 0.45% in 24 hours, while whale flow diverged by net selling YES contracts.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?’ YES price jumps 69.3 points on whale buying
Whales pushed $5K net into YES as Polymarket odds surged from 3.5% to 72.9% in 24 hours, signaling rapid repricing.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 31.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged sharply from price movement as YES contract fell from 69.0% to 37.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Strait of Hormuz transit drops 23pp despite whale outflows
The market for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall from 67.5% to 44.5% as whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds drop 18.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as YES contracts fell from 34.0% to 15.5% on Polymarket in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
YES price on xAI Grok model debut plunges 74pp to 3.1% as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s odds for Grok’s next model hitting 1460 score by end-2026 collapsed sharply while whale bets did not follow the sell-off.
Jul 11
Breaking
Bitcoin $65K July Contract Jumps 15pp to 87.5% on Aligned Whale Bets
Polymarket’s Bitcoin price target market surged as whale activity confirmed the sharp rise in odds.
Jul 11
Breaking
OpenAI model score market YES price plunges 70.9 pp amid whale flow-price split
YES contract on OpenAI model debut score fell from 81.5% to 10.6% while whales bought $3K into YES, diverging from price action.
Jul 10