The market on whether the next Grok model released by xAI will debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, saw a dramatic drop in its YES price, plunging 73.9 percentage points from 77.0% to 3.1% over the past 24 hours.
This sharp repricing signals a drastic shift in collective market sentiment on Polymarket, where $11K changed hands during the same period. However, the price move diverged notably from whale activity, which did not align with the steep decline in contract value.
Whale flow divergence indicates that large traders refrained from following the broad market’s rapid sell-off, suggesting a possible disconnect between retail sentiment and large-volume positions. This uncommon pattern points to uncertainty or conflicting views among informed participants about the likelihood of Grok’s next model achieving the specified performance threshold.
The combination of a collapsing YES price and opposing whale flow underscores a volatile reassessment of Grok’s future capabilities within the prediction market. It highlights that despite widespread pessimism reflected in the contract price, substantial players have yet to liquidate or add to YES holdings, leaving the market’s ultimate direction unsettled.
| Market | Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839994 |
| 24h price change | +73.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 3.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 77.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.