The Polymarket prediction market “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw a dramatic increase in its YES contract price, rising 69.3 percentage points to 72.9% over the past 24 hours from a prior 3.5%. This sharp repricing was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the price move, with 67 unique whales contributing $11K in buy volume and $6K in sell volume, resulting in a net $5K flow into YES positions.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market totaled $11K, with lifetime trading volume reaching $17K across 139 unique traders, reflecting concentrated but decisive market attention. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 72.9% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid price of 93.0%, indicating some divergence between the platform’s live price and on-chain liquidity metrics.
The combined surge in price and net whale buying signals a swift reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will successfully target shipping on the specified date. The alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests conviction among larger traders fueling this rapid odds adjustment, rather than a price move unsupported by significant capital. This activity highlights how informed participants can drive sudden shifts in prediction market pricing based on evolving information or sentiment.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +69.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 72.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 67 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 139 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.