Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, plunge 54.9 pp on Polymarket
Whale buying flow diverges sharply from a steep drop in YES contract price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 14
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Israeli Parliament Dissolution Odds Surge 56 Points to 68%
Whale activity and price movement aligned as bets on July 16 dissolution jumped sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 60.8pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged sharply from price, with $32K net inflow into YES as market price plunged from 95.3% to 34.5%.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES odds surge 36pp to 98.6%
Whale activity matched the sharp 36 percentage point increase in YES price on Polymarket, signaling strong conviction in the outcome.
Jul 14
Breaking
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? YES price plunges 43.2 pp amid whale buying divergence
Whale activity diverged sharply from a 43.2 pp drop in YES price, highlighting conflicting signals in the Polymarket market.
Jul 14
Breaking
Credible public sale market jumps 44pp to 85.5% with $21K whale inflow
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price surge from 41.5% to 85.5%, signaling strong conviction in over $30M committed.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price jumps 61.4 pp to 72.9%
Whale activity matched a sharp 24-hour rise in odds, pushing the market from 11.5% to 72.9% probability
Jul 14
Whales
Whales Net $560K Into Spain Win Market Despite 22.7% Price
Large traders increase exposure to Spain in 2026 World Cup market while overall odds remain steady.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?” YES Price Drops 50.6pp Despite $79K Whale Inflow
The market's YES contract plunged from 58.3% to 7.6% in 24 hours, while whales increased bets on the outcome, signaling a split between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 14
Breaking
“US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” YES price drops 37pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s odds for US imposing Hormuz fees plunge from 48.0% to 11.0%, while whale activity contradicts the sharp price fall.
Jul 14