The Polymarket contract on whether the US will charge fees for Hormuz passage by December 31, 2026, saw a dramatic shift in odds over the last 24 hours, with the YES price plunging 37.0 percentage points from 48.0% to 11.0%.
This sharp repricing occurred despite whale activity moving in the opposite direction, signaling a divergence between large trader flow and the price action. While the market price sharply discounted the likelihood of the US imposing these fees, whales did not follow suit, creating a notable disconnect in the market dynamics.
Trading volume for the contract in the past day reached $43K, reflecting active engagement but not aligning with the price’s downward shift. This divergence between whale flow and market pricing highlights a complex interplay, suggesting that despite large bets maintaining interest in the YES outcome, the broader market has substantially reduced its probability assessment.
The combined signals from price and whale flow complicate the narrative around this contract, indicating uncertainty or conflicting views among market participants about the US’s policy move on Hormuz fees by the end of 2026.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +37.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 11.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 48.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $43K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.