The probability for the market “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” dropped sharply by 54.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from an estimated 95.3% to 40.5%. This steep decline in the YES contract price contrasts markedly with whale trading activity, which saw a net inflow of $32K into YES positions during the same period. Whales executed $61K in buy volume against $29K in sell volume, involving 79 unique whale traders.
This divergence between price movement and whale flow is unusual. While the market price sharply discounted the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the strait by the deadline, whales increased their exposure to that outcome. Total 24-hour volume on the market was $45K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $102K with 180 unique traders overall.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 40.5% differs substantially from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 96.4%, underscoring a split in market signals. The sharp drop in price alongside sustained whale buying suggests a contested view among participants about the probability of this event occurring.
This combination of a dramatic price decline and divergent whale flow points to a market grappling with new information or conflicting interpretations, reflecting uncertainty or shifting sentiment ahead of the July 31, 2026 deadline.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +54.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $32K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $61K / $29K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 79 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $45K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 180 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.