Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch odds tumble 33pp to 53.5% on Polymarket
Polymarket’s SpaceX launch market saw a sharp 33pp drop in YES price despite whale activity diverging from the move.
Jul 20
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch odds collapse 33pp to 0.05% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from price action as market odds plunged from 33.0% to near zero within 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump’s Presence in WC Champions Photo Nears Certainty with 37.5pp Jump
Whales contributed $852K net buying as the market price surged from 61.5% to 99.1% in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver mayoral odds plunge 37.5 points despite $7K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from sharp market sell-off as YES price dropped from 51.5% to 14.0% in 24 hours
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump in WC Champions Photo Odds Surge 38.6pp to 99.1% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $825K net buying as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Trump appearing in the photo.
Jul 20
Whales
$2.40M Buy on Spain Winning 2026 FIFA World Cup Joins Whale Flow
A single wallet placed $5.77M across nine trades backing Spain in the 2026 World Cup market, aligning with broader whale buying.
Jul 20
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch odds plunge 52.5 points in 24 hours on Polymarket
Contrary to the sharp drop in market odds, whale activity diverged by not supporting the sell-off in YES contracts.
Jul 20
Breaking
Messi Silver Ball YES contract surges 91.3pp to 100% despite $10K whale NO bets
Polymarket’s market on Messi winning the 2026 Silver Ball jumps to certainty while whale flow moves counter to the price shift.
Jul 20
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 25pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale flow diverged from price as the market's YES probability fell sharply to 25.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
Netherlands Fair Play Award YES price jumps 99.6pp to 100% with whale support
Whales contributed $12K net buying as the market for Netherlands winning the 2026 Fair Play Award surged from 0.40% to certainty.
Jul 20