The market for “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?” saw a dramatic collapse in its YES contract price, dropping 33.0 percentage points from 33.0% to 0.05% over the past 24 hours on Polymarket.
This steep decline signals a near-total loss of confidence in the event occurring by the deadline. However, the whale flow diverged from this price movement, indicating that large traders did not mirror the sharp sell-off. Despite the plummeting odds, whales did not significantly reduce their YES positions, creating a notable disconnect between price and large-scale trading activity.
The market registered $10K in volume during this period, reflecting moderate trading interest amid the volatility. The divergence between whale flow and price action suggests uncertainty or differing interpretations among major players compared to the broader market consensus.
Such a sharp repricing combined with conflicting whale behavior highlights a complex dynamic in expectations surrounding the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch timeline.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954494 |
| 24h price change | +33.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.05% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.