A $2.40M buy order hit the Polymarket contract “Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” from wallet 0xe3f1…bd92, marking the largest single trade on Polymarket in the last 24 hours. This trade is part of a series from the same wallet, which also purchased $904K and $604K on the same outcome, while selling $499K, totaling $5.77M across nine large trades today.
The market-implied probability for Spain winning stood at 100.0% at the snapshot, indicating this trade supports a fully priced outcome. The wallet has a lifetime volume of $3.20M over 1,045 trades in one market, showing a concentrated trading history. The trade aligns with the broader whale flow on this market, which saw $17.21M bought versus $3.79M sold in the last 24 hours by 2,450 unique whales.
The event “World Cup Winner” spans 50 markets, with $4.06B in lifetime volume and 158,831 traders. Within this event, the single largest trader accounts for 3.6% of volume. The market for this outcome closes today, adding urgency to the positioning. The event’s biggest winner has gained $36.60M in estimated PnL, while the biggest loser stands at minus $140.87M.
This $2.40M purchase highlights significant conviction from a major whale who is increasing exposure to Spain’s victory in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, consistent with the overall whale buying trend on this market. The scale and timing of these trades contribute to the market’s final positioning ahead of closure.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0xe3f1fb88b9eabc743e2a2d947e2efdba5e99bd92 |
| Amount | $2.40M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-20T00:45:25Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.