The market on whether Kareem Allam will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election fell sharply by 37.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 51.5% to 14.0% in YES contract price. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment against Allam’s chances.
Despite the steep decline in price, whale activity diverged from the tape, with net whale flow of $7K into YES contracts during the same period. Whales bought $15K worth of YES shares and sold $9K, involving 70 unique whale traders. Overall Polymarket volume for the market was $16K in 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime volume of $55K across 293 unique traders.
The divergence between price movement and whale flow is notable. While the broader market sharply downgraded Allam’s odds, whales increased their exposure to YES, suggesting a disconnect between large traders and the general market sentiment.
Combined, the steep price drop and opposing whale flow highlight a contested market narrative. The price action signals a strong market reassessment of Allam’s chances, while whale buying introduces a layer of complexity, underscoring an active debate on the candidate’s viability in the 2026 Vancouver mayoral race.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +37.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 14.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 14.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $15K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 70 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 293 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.