The probability that SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 23 plummeted by 52.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from 86.5% to 34.0%. This steep decline signals a significant shift in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of the test flight occurring on schedule.
Despite this sharp drop in YES contract prices, whale activity diverged from the price movement. Large traders did not align their bets with the falling odds, indicating a disconnect between the biggest market participants and the broader crowd’s reassessment of the event’s chances. The 24-hour trading volume on the market reached $11K, reflecting moderate liquidity amid the price volatility.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement suggests that while retail or smaller traders rapidly downgraded the launch probability, whales maintained a steadier stance, potentially anticipating a different outcome or viewing the sell-off as an overreaction. The contrasting signals from price and flow highlight uncertainty in the market’s consensus on the event’s timing.
Overall, the combined sharp repricing downward and opposing whale behavior reveal a market in flux, with significant disagreement on the probability of Starship Flight Test 13 launching by the July 23 deadline.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954495 |
| 24h price change | +52.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 86.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.