Breaking
Trump UFO files declassification odds jump 41pp to 77.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with rising prices as traders sharply increased bets on July 15 disclosure.
Jul 9
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
GPT next model 1480+ score odds drop 22pp to 31% amid whale-price divergence
Whales increased YES bets by $3K while Polymarket YES price fell sharply, signaling conflicting signals in market flow and price.
Jul 9
Breaking
Binface’s chances for second place in Clacton plunge 31.5pp amid whale selling
A sharp 31.5 percentage point drop in YES price contrasts with whale flow, signaling market skepticism despite retail volume.
Jul 9
Breaking
Count Binface’s chance at second place in Clacton drops 35pp to 58.5%
Whale trading diverged sharply from a steep 24-hour price drop in the Clacton by-election market.
Jul 9
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” YES contract jumps 56pp to 92.5%
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced odds of Trump releasing UFO files within five days.
Jul 9
Breaking
“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” YES price jumps 30.4 pp to 97.4% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise with $6K net inflow into YES contracts amid a total $10K trading volume.
Jul 9
Breaking
Samuel Alito retirement odds plunge 18.6 points as whale bets diverge
Polymarket's contract on Alito retiring by July 15, 2026, falls from 23.2% to 4.6% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 9
Breaking
AI model hitting 1550 Math Arena Score by end-2026 jumps 20.5pp to 50.5% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp rise in odds, pushing the market from 30.0% to 50.5% in 24 hours despite on-chain price divergence.
Jul 9
Breaking
Count Binface’s odds for second place in Clacton by-election drop 30.5 pp in 24h
Despite a 30.5 percentage point fall in the YES price, whale flow diverged by not following the price decline.
Jul 9
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K July Dip Odds Drop 18.5pp Despite Whale Silence
Polymarket’s “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?” contract sees a sharp price decline without confirming whale activity.
Jul 9