The probability that former President Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 surged by 56.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, jumping from an estimated 36.5% to 92.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic revaluation reflects a swift change in market sentiment just days before the deadline.
Trading volume in the market reached $11K over the period, indicating moderate liquidity as participants adjusted their positions. Notably, whale activity moved in alignment with the price change, confirming the shift in consensus rather than opposing it. This suggests that large traders were instrumental in driving the repricing, supporting the growing conviction that the files will be released.
The synchronized movement of price and whale flow signals a strong market consensus forming around the event. The rapid increase in odds, combined with whale participation, underscores heightened confidence and a narrowing of uncertainty regarding the declassification timeline. This repricing sharply differentiates from the prior balance of probabilities and highlights the evolving expectations among prediction market participants ahead of the July 15 date.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +56.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.