The market on whether Count Binface will secure second place in the Clacton by-election saw a sharp reversal in the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price tumbling from 93.5% to 63.0%, a drop of 30.5 percentage points. This significant price shift occurred alongside a relatively modest $11K in 24-hour trading volume, indicating limited market activity overall.
Notably, whale flow diverged from the price movement, as large traders did not push the price down in alignment with the market’s selloff. This divergence suggests that while the general market sentiment turned decisively against Count Binface’s chances of finishing second, major stakeholders maintained or increased their exposure to the YES position, possibly signaling a different assessment of the by-election dynamics compared to broader market participants.
The gap between the steep price drop and the opposing whale flow highlights a tension in the market’s interpretation of the event. The contrasting signals from price action and whale behavior underline uncertainty and differing views on Binface’s electoral prospects.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +30.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 63.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 93.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.