The probability that Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 surged by 41.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 36.5% to 77.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant market reassessment of the likelihood of disclosure within the next five days.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this contract reached $13K, signaling heightened trader engagement around the topic. Notably, whale flow aligned with this price movement, indicating that large-volume traders supported the bullish shift in odds rather than opposing it. This synchronization between price action and whale bets suggests confidence among influential market participants in the new information or sentiment driving the surge.
The market’s rapid adjustment and the accompanying whale flow alignment underscore a consensus shift on the timeline for UFO file declassification. The combined price and flow dynamics point to stronger conviction that the event will occur by the mid-July deadline, marking a sharp change from the more skeptical pricing just one day prior.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +41.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.