The market on whether the United States will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price climb 22.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 28.5% to 50.5%. This significant repricing signals a marked shift in market expectations about US naval deployments in this strategic waterway.
Alongside the price move, whale activity aligned with the rising odds, indicating that large traders supported the upward momentum rather than contradicting it. The combined price and flow data suggest coordinated confidence among high-stakes participants that the event is increasingly likely.
Trading volume over the same period totaled $7K, reflecting moderate engagement from the market amid this sharp odds adjustment. The alignment of whale bets with the price trajectory lends credibility to the move, highlighting a consensus shift rather than isolated speculative activity.
This repricing and whale confirmation together suggest that participants are factoring new information or reassessing geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf. The market now places the chance of US warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz near even odds, a substantial increase from roughly one in four a day earlier.
| Market | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2761559 |
| 24h price change | +22.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 50.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 28.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.